The Birb Nest Bitcoin 17.1.20
Nagato Dharma

Bitcoin Analysis by The Birb Nest #5

Bitcoin Analysis by The Birb Nest #5

HTF (High Time Frame)

1W (Weekly)

This last weekly close was very strong, and above the previous supply block that I marked, also above the trendline, but I removed both from my chart, since I was studying the 2018 bear market and noticed that trendlines were often broken on the upside but didn’t signal a WEEKLY trend reversal, what really signaled it was a higher high on the weekly chart. This means going above $9.4k atm. Using Ichimoku again to gauge some trend following, we can see that chikou has ton of resistance at said $9.5k area, and price isn’t closing yet inside the kumo (very important for a macro bull bear bias). Also, there is a bearish kumo twist ahead. Basically $9.5k is the last bearish bias stand, Above that it’s “sell kidney buy BTC” kinda fomo.

1D (Daily)

While weekly is still undetermined, The daily looks VERY bullish instead, Chikou above kumo, price above kumo, everything is bullish except the fact that we are below the 200 DMA (important MA we have to overcome in order to be in a full bull territory). Also we are near the .618 Fib level retracent, in the paste every BTC pump started to reverse around that area (in 2018, now in 2019 it was more often the .786 level. So what to do? Market structure is not broken, possible long entries are acceptable at $8.2k, since the previous 3 days look like a top fractal (hanging man doji+ red candle), I would look for reactions around $8.2k for a long on low TF. The only thing that worries me a bit is the high premium index and funding (0.03%). High funding in one direction or another one is never a good sign, hopefully we can retrace a bit and reset it quickly.

TL;DR: while the weekly is still in a GRAY zone, daily is bullish for the time being and unless $7.6k is breached, it is possible to long retracements if price reacts well enough on important levels on low tf ($8.2k on 4h time frame), keeping in mind that we NEED price above 200 DMA for trend reversal confirmation.

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