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Nagato Dharma

We’re running out of Bitcoin – Bitcoin Scarcity

A research on the statistics and the future of Bitcoin.

I’m writing this article as a reminder, to help everyone see the bigger picture and focus on the broader perspective of the cryptocurrency space. Because of the bear market we have lost the clarity of the long term vision and as a result some are starting to lose faith. All the people who are still in the space and are educating themselves may come to see their plans come to fruition and in the future they might belong to the 1-15% of the top Bitcoin holders, if they keep accumulating.

That is because the total number of Bitcoins that will ever exist is limited and the only thing that keeps the price back is the fact that not many people are involved in it right now. If we take a closer look at the numbers, we’ll soon realize that we’re running out of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Scarcity Table


There are 144 blocks mined per day on average, and the current reward is set at 12.5 bitcoins per block. By doing the math, we can see that the average amount of newly mined coins is 1,800 bitcoin per day. The block reward drops in half every 210,000 blocks, which is every 4 years. Above you can check the number of the total mined BTC in relation to the upcoming years, showing that the scarcity of Bitcoin will increase dramatically. People might look back to 2019-2020 and think that those who knew about Bitcoin back then were pretty lucky, and that they would be insane if they didn’t accumulate at those low prices.

Bitcoin % change in the last 7 years.

The price of Bitcoin has increased by 65,000% in the last 7 years. Right now we’re experiencing the longest bear market, which can also be seen as a good thing, if you truly believe in the long-term existence of the cryptocurrency movement. This kind of investments sometimes doesn’t make you rich fast, but those who have an insight will be rewarded if the adoption increases. Also notice that, because the markets are frequently manipulated by whales, you should always take profits and maybe sell a percentage of your holdings as the price goes up, to secure your place.

According to ChainAnalysis nearly 4 million Bitcoins are lost forever. That is including Satoshi’s ~1M BTC, so we can assume that 3 million BTC are forever lost. There are 17.5m BTC currently in circulation and a total of 21m BTC are set to ever exist. In 2019 there will be 657,000 BTC produced and on May 24, 2020 the halving will occur and it will adjust the production to 325,000 BTC mined per year. This means that by 2020 there will be 18.4 million BTC in circulation and by 2024 19,7 million BTC will have been mined.

Bitcoin adressess
The actual number of personal addresses holding Bitcoin is 25M

As this twitter profile summary mentions below, there’s a total of 21M Bitcoin (3m lost), so these Bitcoins when divided by the 7 billion population of the planet it equals to 0.003 Bitcoin for each person. This shows that the supply of Bitcoin is limited and it also decreases every 4 years, while the demand is constantly increasing. With ~25 million active personal Bitcoin addresses at the moment, we can imagine what will happen when more people will want to own a whole Bitcoin or just a fraction of it.

Fidelity & Bakkt - Broader Adoption

Bakkt & Fidelity

Fidelity has over 70 million active customers at the moment. When they start offering crypto services many more people will learn about Bitcoin and they will have a trustworthy retail company backing it and accepting it as a currency. This will build a momentum and the real race for owning Bitcoin will start.

Fidelity Statistics

Bakkt is an exchange owned by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), whose total assets value is estimated to be more than $90 billion. They will soon launch Bitcoin futures services, further expanding the cryptocurrency adoption and investing. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is a subsidiary of ICE and has a total market cap of $30 trillion. These are the most reputable and respected financial institutions. When their cryptocurrency services launch in 2019, they will spark a global adoption of Bitcoin. If the numbers work out right, it will be pretty rare to own a whole Bitcoin. Just imagine if 100 million of ICE & Fidelity customers want to own a piece of BTC, the available supply will instantly disappear, and the value of the freshly mined Bitcoins will skyrocket because their total supply number is limited.


This is not intended to be perceived as financial advice. This is an attempt to clarify the broader perspective of the cryptocurrency horizon. Even owning 0.1 BTC might be a good hedge for the future. Thank you for your time, and remember, always do your own research, as it is your responsibility when you’re acting as your own bank.

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